The Gold Bullion Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 25.25

QGLCX Fund  USD 25.68  0.26  1.02%   
Gold Bullion's future price is the expected price of Gold Bullion instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of The Gold Bullion performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Gold Bullion Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Gold Bullion Correlation, Gold Bullion Hype Analysis, Gold Bullion Volatility, Gold Bullion History as well as Gold Bullion Performance.
  
Please specify Gold Bullion's target price for which you would like Gold Bullion odds to be computed.

Gold Bullion Target Price Odds to finish over 25.25

The tendency of Gold Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 25.25  in 90 days
 25.68 90 days 25.25 
about 74.58
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Gold Bullion to stay above $ 25.25  in 90 days from now is about 74.58 (This The Gold Bullion probability density function shows the probability of Gold Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Gold Bullion price to stay between $ 25.25  and its current price of $25.68 at the end of the 90-day period is about 25.86 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Gold Bullion has a beta of 0.0976 indicating as returns on the market go up, Gold Bullion average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding The Gold Bullion will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The Gold Bullion has an alpha of 0.0693, implying that it can generate a 0.0693 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Gold Bullion Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Gold Bullion

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gold Bullion. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gold Bullion's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
24.6725.6826.69
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
22.6623.6728.25
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
25.1526.1627.17
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
24.8025.5126.21
Details

Gold Bullion Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Gold Bullion is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Gold Bullion's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold The Gold Bullion, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Gold Bullion within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.07
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.1
σ
Overall volatility
0.62
Ir
Information ratio -0.03

Gold Bullion Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Gold Bullion for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Gold Bullion can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund maintains about 53.03% of its assets in cash

Gold Bullion Technical Analysis

Gold Bullion's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Gold Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of The Gold Bullion. In general, you should focus on analyzing Gold Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Gold Bullion Predictive Forecast Models

Gold Bullion's time-series forecasting models is one of many Gold Bullion's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Gold Bullion's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Gold Bullion

Checking the ongoing alerts about Gold Bullion for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Gold Bullion help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund maintains about 53.03% of its assets in cash

Other Information on Investing in Gold Mutual Fund

Gold Bullion financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gold Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gold with respect to the benefits of owning Gold Bullion security.
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