PayPal Holdings (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 16.26

PYPL34 Stock  BRL 28.15  0.05  0.18%   
PayPal Holdings' future price is the expected price of PayPal Holdings instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of PayPal Holdings performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out PayPal Holdings Backtesting, PayPal Holdings Valuation, PayPal Holdings Correlation, PayPal Holdings Hype Analysis, PayPal Holdings Volatility, PayPal Holdings History as well as PayPal Holdings Performance.
For information on how to trade PayPal Stock refer to our How to Trade PayPal Stock guide.
  
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PayPal Holdings Target Price Odds to finish below 16.26

The tendency of PayPal Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to R$ 16.26  or more in 90 days
 28.15 90 days 16.26 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of PayPal Holdings to drop to R$ 16.26  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This PayPal Holdings probability density function shows the probability of PayPal Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of PayPal Holdings price to stay between R$ 16.26  and its current price of R$28.15 at the end of the 90-day period is about 98.0 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon PayPal Holdings has a beta of 0.11 indicating as returns on the market go up, PayPal Holdings average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding PayPal Holdings will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally PayPal Holdings has an alpha of 0.5402, implying that it can generate a 0.54 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   PayPal Holdings Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for PayPal Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PayPal Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
25.7528.1030.45
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
25.2932.3134.67
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as PayPal Holdings. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against PayPal Holdings' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, PayPal Holdings' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in PayPal Holdings.

PayPal Holdings Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. PayPal Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the PayPal Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold PayPal Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of PayPal Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.54
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.11
σ
Overall volatility
2.21
Ir
Information ratio 0.21

PayPal Holdings Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of PayPal Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential PayPal Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PayPal Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.1 B

PayPal Holdings Technical Analysis

PayPal Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. PayPal Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of PayPal Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing PayPal Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

PayPal Holdings Predictive Forecast Models

PayPal Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many PayPal Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary PayPal Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards PayPal Holdings in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, PayPal Holdings' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from PayPal Holdings options trading.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in PayPal Stock

When determining whether PayPal Holdings is a strong investment it is important to analyze PayPal Holdings' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact PayPal Holdings' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding PayPal Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out PayPal Holdings Backtesting, PayPal Holdings Valuation, PayPal Holdings Correlation, PayPal Holdings Hype Analysis, PayPal Holdings Volatility, PayPal Holdings History as well as PayPal Holdings Performance.
For information on how to trade PayPal Stock refer to our How to Trade PayPal Stock guide.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between PayPal Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if PayPal Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, PayPal Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.