Payden Floating Rate Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 9.72
| PYBLX Fund | 9.80 0.01 0.10% |
Payden |
Payden Floating Target Price Odds to finish below 9.72
The tendency of Payden Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 9.72 or more in 90 days |
| 9.80 | 90 days | 9.72 | about 27.29 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Payden Floating to drop to 9.72 or more in 90 days from now is about 27.29 (This Payden Floating Rate probability density function shows the probability of Payden Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Payden Floating Rate price to stay between 9.72 and its current price of 9.8 at the end of the 90-day period is about 53.59 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Payden Floating has a beta of 0.0256 indicating as returns on the market go up, Payden Floating average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Payden Floating Rate will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Payden Floating Rate has an alpha of 0.0144, implying that it can generate a 0.0144 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Payden Floating Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Payden Floating
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Payden Floating Rate. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Payden Floating Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Payden Floating is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Payden Floating's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Payden Floating Rate, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Payden Floating within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Payden Floating Technical Analysis
Payden Floating's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Payden Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Payden Floating Rate. In general, you should focus on analyzing Payden Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Payden Floating Predictive Forecast Models
Payden Floating's time-series forecasting models is one of many Payden Floating's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Payden Floating's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Payden Floating in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Payden Floating's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Payden Floating options trading.
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