Pennymac Mortgage Investment Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 23.57
| PMTU Stock | 25.75 0.11 0.43% |
PennyMac |
PennyMac Mortgage Target Price Odds to finish below 23.57
The tendency of PennyMac Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 23.57 or more in 90 days |
| 25.75 | 90 days | 23.57 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of PennyMac Mortgage to drop to 23.57 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This PennyMac Mortgage Investment probability density function shows the probability of PennyMac Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of PennyMac Mortgage price to stay between 23.57 and its current price of 25.75 at the end of the 90-day period is about 46.16 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days PennyMac Mortgage Investment has a beta of -0.092 indicating as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding PennyMac Mortgage are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, PennyMac Mortgage Investment is likely to outperform the market. Additionally PennyMac Mortgage Investment has an alpha of 0.0283, implying that it can generate a 0.0283 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). PennyMac Mortgage Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for PennyMac Mortgage
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PennyMac Mortgage. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of PennyMac Mortgage's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
PennyMac Mortgage Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. PennyMac Mortgage is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the PennyMac Mortgage's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold PennyMac Mortgage Investment, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of PennyMac Mortgage within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.21 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.23 |
PennyMac Mortgage Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of PennyMac Mortgage for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for PennyMac Mortgage can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| PennyMac Mortgage has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures |
PennyMac Mortgage Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of PennyMac Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential PennyMac Mortgage's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PennyMac Mortgage's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Dividend Yield | 0.0232 |
PennyMac Mortgage Technical Analysis
PennyMac Mortgage's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. PennyMac Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of PennyMac Mortgage Investment. In general, you should focus on analyzing PennyMac Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
PennyMac Mortgage Predictive Forecast Models
PennyMac Mortgage's time-series forecasting models is one of many PennyMac Mortgage's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary PennyMac Mortgage's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about PennyMac Mortgage
Checking the ongoing alerts about PennyMac Mortgage for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for PennyMac Mortgage help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| PennyMac Mortgage has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures |
Additional Tools for PennyMac Stock Analysis
When running PennyMac Mortgage's price analysis, check to measure PennyMac Mortgage's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PennyMac Mortgage is operating at the current time. Most of PennyMac Mortgage's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PennyMac Mortgage's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PennyMac Mortgage's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PennyMac Mortgage to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.