Pultegroup Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 135.27
| PHM Stock | USD 125.34 3.13 2.44% |
PulteGroup |
PulteGroup Target Price Odds to finish below 135.27
The tendency of PulteGroup Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 135.27 after 90 days |
| 125.34 | 90 days | 135.27 | about 46.79 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of PulteGroup to stay under $ 135.27 after 90 days from now is about 46.79 (This PulteGroup probability density function shows the probability of PulteGroup Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of PulteGroup price to stay between its current price of $ 125.34 and $ 135.27 at the end of the 90-day period is about 42.3 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon PulteGroup has a beta of 0.41 indicating as returns on the market go up, PulteGroup average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding PulteGroup will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally PulteGroup has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. PulteGroup Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for PulteGroup
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PulteGroup. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.PulteGroup Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. PulteGroup is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the PulteGroup's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold PulteGroup, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of PulteGroup within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.41 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.22 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
PulteGroup Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of PulteGroup for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for PulteGroup can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| PulteGroup generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| PulteGroup is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 94.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Is PulteGroup a Buy as Wall Street Analysts Look Optimistic |
PulteGroup Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of PulteGroup Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential PulteGroup's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PulteGroup's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 221.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.5 B |
PulteGroup Technical Analysis
PulteGroup's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. PulteGroup Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of PulteGroup. In general, you should focus on analyzing PulteGroup Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
PulteGroup Predictive Forecast Models
PulteGroup's time-series forecasting models is one of many PulteGroup's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary PulteGroup's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about PulteGroup
Checking the ongoing alerts about PulteGroup for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for PulteGroup help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| PulteGroup generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| PulteGroup is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 94.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Is PulteGroup a Buy as Wall Street Analysts Look Optimistic |
Check out PulteGroup Backtesting, PulteGroup Valuation, PulteGroup Correlation, PulteGroup Hype Analysis, PulteGroup Volatility, PulteGroup History as well as PulteGroup Performance. To learn how to invest in PulteGroup Stock, please use our How to Invest in PulteGroup guide.You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Is Household Durables space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of PulteGroup. If investors know PulteGroup will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about PulteGroup listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.156 | Dividend Share 0.8 | Earnings Share 13.55 | Revenue Per Share 82.23 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.118 |
The market value of PulteGroup is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of PulteGroup that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of PulteGroup's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is PulteGroup's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because PulteGroup's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect PulteGroup's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between PulteGroup's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if PulteGroup is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, PulteGroup's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.