Pagaya Technologies Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 10.81
| PGY Stock | USD 9.79 0.12 1.24% |
Closest to current price Pagaya long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Pagaya |
Pagaya Technologies Target Price Odds to finish below 10.81
The tendency of Pagaya Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 10.81 after 90 days |
| 9.79 | 90 days | 10.81 | about 41.3 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Pagaya Technologies to stay under $ 10.81 after 90 days from now is about 41.3 (This Pagaya Technologies probability density function shows the probability of Pagaya Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Pagaya Technologies price to stay between its current price of $ 9.79 and $ 10.81 at the end of the 90-day period is about 23.8 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 4.51 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Pagaya Technologies will likely underperform. Additionally Pagaya Technologies has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Pagaya Technologies Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Pagaya Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pagaya Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Pagaya Technologies Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Pagaya Technologies is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Pagaya Technologies' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Pagaya Technologies, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Pagaya Technologies within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.56 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 4.51 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.43 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Pagaya Technologies Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Pagaya Technologies for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Pagaya Technologies can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Pagaya Technologies generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Pagaya Technologies has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Pagaya Technologies has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 772.81 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (128.44 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 297.84 M. | |
| Pagaya Technologies has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 16.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 5448 shares by Evangelos Perros of Pagaya Technologies at 51.36 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Pagaya Technologies Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Pagaya Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Pagaya Technologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Pagaya Technologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 60 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 189 M |
Pagaya Technologies Technical Analysis
Pagaya Technologies' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Pagaya Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Pagaya Technologies. In general, you should focus on analyzing Pagaya Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Pagaya Technologies Predictive Forecast Models
Pagaya Technologies' time-series forecasting models is one of many Pagaya Technologies' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Pagaya Technologies' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Pagaya Technologies
Checking the ongoing alerts about Pagaya Technologies for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Pagaya Technologies help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Pagaya Technologies generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Pagaya Technologies has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Pagaya Technologies has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 772.81 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (128.44 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 297.84 M. | |
| Pagaya Technologies has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 16.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 5448 shares by Evangelos Perros of Pagaya Technologies at 51.36 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Additional Tools for Pagaya Stock Analysis
When running Pagaya Technologies' price analysis, check to measure Pagaya Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Pagaya Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Pagaya Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Pagaya Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Pagaya Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Pagaya Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.