Pebblebrook Hotel (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 12.45
| PD0 Stock | 14.00 0.40 2.94% |
Pebblebrook |
Pebblebrook Hotel Target Price Odds to finish below 12.45
The tendency of Pebblebrook Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 12.45 or more in 90 days |
| 14.00 | 90 days | 12.45 | about 79.36 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Pebblebrook Hotel to drop to 12.45 or more in 90 days from now is about 79.36 (This Pebblebrook Hotel Trust probability density function shows the probability of Pebblebrook Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Pebblebrook Hotel Trust price to stay between 12.45 and its current price of 14.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 20.31 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.87 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Pebblebrook Hotel will likely underperform. Additionally Pebblebrook Hotel Trust has an alpha of 0.1423, implying that it can generate a 0.14 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Pebblebrook Hotel Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Pebblebrook Hotel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pebblebrook Hotel Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Pebblebrook Hotel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Pebblebrook Hotel Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Pebblebrook Hotel is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Pebblebrook Hotel's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Pebblebrook Hotel Trust, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Pebblebrook Hotel within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.87 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.74 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.10 |
Pebblebrook Hotel Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Pebblebrook Hotel for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Pebblebrook Hotel Trust can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Pebblebrook Hotel has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.39 B. Net Loss for the year was (87.17 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. |
Pebblebrook Hotel Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Pebblebrook Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Pebblebrook Hotel's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Pebblebrook Hotel's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 126.3 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 52.7 M |
Pebblebrook Hotel Technical Analysis
Pebblebrook Hotel's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Pebblebrook Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Pebblebrook Hotel Trust. In general, you should focus on analyzing Pebblebrook Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Pebblebrook Hotel Predictive Forecast Models
Pebblebrook Hotel's time-series forecasting models is one of many Pebblebrook Hotel's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Pebblebrook Hotel's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Pebblebrook Hotel Trust
Checking the ongoing alerts about Pebblebrook Hotel for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Pebblebrook Hotel Trust help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Pebblebrook Hotel has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.39 B. Net Loss for the year was (87.17 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. |
Additional Tools for Pebblebrook Stock Analysis
When running Pebblebrook Hotel's price analysis, check to measure Pebblebrook Hotel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Pebblebrook Hotel is operating at the current time. Most of Pebblebrook Hotel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Pebblebrook Hotel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Pebblebrook Hotel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Pebblebrook Hotel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.