Parag Milk (India) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 166.76

PARAGMILK   184.76  3.26  1.73%   
Parag Milk's future price is the expected price of Parag Milk instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Parag Milk Foods performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Parag Milk Backtesting, Parag Milk Valuation, Parag Milk Correlation, Parag Milk Hype Analysis, Parag Milk Volatility, Parag Milk History as well as Parag Milk Performance.
  
Please specify Parag Milk's target price for which you would like Parag Milk odds to be computed.

Parag Milk Target Price Odds to finish over 166.76

The tendency of Parag Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above  166.76  in 90 days
 184.76 90 days 166.76 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Parag Milk to stay above  166.76  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Parag Milk Foods probability density function shows the probability of Parag Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Parag Milk Foods price to stay between  166.76  and its current price of 184.76 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.52 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Parag Milk has a beta of 0.65 indicating as returns on the market go up, Parag Milk average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Parag Milk Foods will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Parag Milk Foods has an alpha of 0.0746, implying that it can generate a 0.0746 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Parag Milk Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Parag Milk

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Parag Milk Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
181.93184.92187.91
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
154.06157.05203.24
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.903.133.48
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Parag Milk. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Parag Milk's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Parag Milk's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Parag Milk Foods.

Parag Milk Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Parag Milk is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Parag Milk's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Parag Milk Foods, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Parag Milk within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.07
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.65
σ
Overall volatility
12.37
Ir
Information ratio 0.02

Parag Milk Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Parag Milk for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Parag Milk Foods can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Parag Milk Foods is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 54.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders

Parag Milk Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Parag Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Parag Milk's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Parag Milk's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding123 M
Cash And Short Term Investments275.7 M

Parag Milk Technical Analysis

Parag Milk's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Parag Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Parag Milk Foods. In general, you should focus on analyzing Parag Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Parag Milk Predictive Forecast Models

Parag Milk's time-series forecasting models is one of many Parag Milk's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Parag Milk's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Parag Milk Foods

Checking the ongoing alerts about Parag Milk for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Parag Milk Foods help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Parag Milk Foods is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 54.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders

Other Information on Investing in Parag Stock

Parag Milk financial ratios help investors to determine whether Parag Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Parag with respect to the benefits of owning Parag Milk security.