Ourinvest Jpp (Brazil) Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Under 70.33
| OUJP11 Fund | BRL 74.99 0.19 0.25% |
Ourinvest |
Ourinvest Jpp Target Price Odds to finish below 70.33
The tendency of Ourinvest Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 70.33 or more in 90 days |
| 74.99 | 90 days | 70.33 | about 78.96 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ourinvest Jpp to drop to R$ 70.33 or more in 90 days from now is about 78.96 (This Ourinvest Jpp Fundo probability density function shows the probability of Ourinvest Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ourinvest Jpp Fundo price to stay between R$ 70.33 and its current price of R$74.99 at the end of the 90-day period is about 20.53 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Ourinvest Jpp Fundo has a beta of -0.19. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Ourinvest Jpp are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Ourinvest Jpp Fundo is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Ourinvest Jpp Fundo has an alpha of 0.1052, implying that it can generate a 0.11 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Ourinvest Jpp Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Ourinvest Jpp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ourinvest Jpp Fundo. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ourinvest Jpp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ourinvest Jpp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ourinvest Jpp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ourinvest Jpp Fundo, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ourinvest Jpp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.19 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.36 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.13 |
Ourinvest Jpp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ourinvest Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ourinvest Jpp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ourinvest Jpp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day | 6.32k | |
| Average Daily Volume In Three Month | 4.12k |
Ourinvest Jpp Technical Analysis
Ourinvest Jpp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ourinvest Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ourinvest Jpp Fundo. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ourinvest Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ourinvest Jpp Predictive Forecast Models
Ourinvest Jpp's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ourinvest Jpp's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ourinvest Jpp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Ourinvest Jpp in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Ourinvest Jpp's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Ourinvest Jpp options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Ourinvest Fund
Ourinvest Jpp financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ourinvest Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ourinvest with respect to the benefits of owning Ourinvest Jpp security.
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