Orascom Financial (Egypt) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 0.38
| OFH Stock | 0.40 0.01 2.56% |
Orascom |
Orascom Financial Target Price Odds to finish over 0.38
The tendency of Orascom Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 0.38 in 90 days |
| 0.40 | 90 days | 0.38 | under 4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Orascom Financial to stay above 0.38 in 90 days from now is under 4 (This Orascom Financial Holding probability density function shows the probability of Orascom Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Orascom Financial Holding price to stay between 0.38 and its current price of 0.4 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.78 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Orascom Financial Holding has a beta of -0.79. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Orascom Financial are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Orascom Financial Holding is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Orascom Financial Holding has an alpha of 0.4431, implying that it can generate a 0.44 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Orascom Financial Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Orascom Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Orascom Financial Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Orascom Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Orascom Financial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Orascom Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Orascom Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Orascom Financial Holding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Orascom Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.44 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.79 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
Orascom Financial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Orascom Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Orascom Financial Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Orascom Financial has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Orascom Financial had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days |
Orascom Financial Technical Analysis
Orascom Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Orascom Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Orascom Financial Holding. In general, you should focus on analyzing Orascom Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Orascom Financial Predictive Forecast Models
Orascom Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Orascom Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Orascom Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Orascom Financial Holding
Checking the ongoing alerts about Orascom Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Orascom Financial Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Orascom Financial has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Orascom Financial had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days |
Additional Tools for Orascom Stock Analysis
When running Orascom Financial's price analysis, check to measure Orascom Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Orascom Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Orascom Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Orascom Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Orascom Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Orascom Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.