Obsidian Energy Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 7.77
| OBE Stock | CAD 7.66 0.06 0.78% |
Obsidian |
Obsidian Energy Target Price Odds to finish below 7.77
The tendency of Obsidian Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under C$ 7.77 after 90 days |
| 7.66 | 90 days | 7.77 | about 20.34 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Obsidian Energy to stay under C$ 7.77 after 90 days from now is about 20.34 (This Obsidian Energy probability density function shows the probability of Obsidian Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Obsidian Energy price to stay between its current price of C$ 7.66 and C$ 7.77 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.34 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Obsidian Energy has a beta of -0.78. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Obsidian Energy are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Obsidian Energy is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Obsidian Energy has an alpha of 0.0607, implying that it can generate a 0.0607 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Obsidian Energy Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Obsidian Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Obsidian Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Obsidian Energy Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Obsidian Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Obsidian Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Obsidian Energy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Obsidian Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.78 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.28 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Obsidian Energy Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Obsidian Energy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Obsidian Energy can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Obsidian Energy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Obsidian Energy has accumulated 228 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.38, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Obsidian Energy has a current ratio of 0.26, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Obsidian Energy until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Obsidian Energy's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Obsidian Energy sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Obsidian to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Obsidian Energy's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Obsidian Energy Shares Down 2.5 percent - Heres Why - MarketBeat |
Obsidian Energy Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Obsidian Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Obsidian Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Obsidian Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 84.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 500 K |
Obsidian Energy Technical Analysis
Obsidian Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Obsidian Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Obsidian Energy. In general, you should focus on analyzing Obsidian Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Obsidian Energy Predictive Forecast Models
Obsidian Energy's time-series forecasting models is one of many Obsidian Energy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Obsidian Energy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Obsidian Energy
Checking the ongoing alerts about Obsidian Energy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Obsidian Energy help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Obsidian Energy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Obsidian Energy has accumulated 228 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.38, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Obsidian Energy has a current ratio of 0.26, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Obsidian Energy until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Obsidian Energy's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Obsidian Energy sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Obsidian to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Obsidian Energy's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Obsidian Energy Shares Down 2.5 percent - Heres Why - MarketBeat |
Check out Obsidian Energy Backtesting, Obsidian Energy Valuation, Obsidian Energy Correlation, Obsidian Energy Hype Analysis, Obsidian Energy Volatility, Obsidian Energy History as well as Obsidian Energy Performance. To learn how to invest in Obsidian Stock, please use our How to Invest in Obsidian Energy guide.You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.