Oakmark International Small Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 14.34
| OANEX Fund | USD 18.50 0.08 0.43% |
Oakmark |
Oakmark International Target Price Odds to finish below 14.34
The tendency of Oakmark Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 14.34 or more in 90 days |
| 18.50 | 90 days | 14.34 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Oakmark International to drop to $ 14.34 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Oakmark International Small probability density function shows the probability of Oakmark Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Oakmark International price to stay between $ 14.34 and its current price of $18.5 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Oakmark International has a beta of 0.33. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Oakmark International average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Oakmark International Small will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Oakmark International Small has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Oakmark International Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Oakmark International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oakmark International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Oakmark International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Oakmark International Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Oakmark International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Oakmark International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Oakmark International Small, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Oakmark International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.33 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.65 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.19 |
Oakmark International Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Oakmark International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Oakmark International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Oakmark International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund maintains 97.08% of its assets in stocks |
Oakmark International Technical Analysis
Oakmark International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Oakmark Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Oakmark International Small. In general, you should focus on analyzing Oakmark Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Oakmark International Predictive Forecast Models
Oakmark International's time-series forecasting models is one of many Oakmark International's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Oakmark International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Oakmark International
Checking the ongoing alerts about Oakmark International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Oakmark International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Oakmark International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund maintains 97.08% of its assets in stocks |
Other Information on Investing in Oakmark Mutual Fund
Oakmark International financial ratios help investors to determine whether Oakmark Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Oakmark with respect to the benefits of owning Oakmark International security.
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