Quanex Building Products Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 23.24
| NX Stock | USD 28.91 0.44 1.50% |
Quanex |
Quanex Building Target Price Odds to finish below 23.24
The tendency of Quanex Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 23.24 or more in 90 days |
| 28.91 | 90 days | 23.24 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Quanex Building to drop to $ 23.24 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Quanex Building Products probability density function shows the probability of Quanex Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Quanex Building Products price to stay between $ 23.24 and its current price of $28.91 at the end of the 90-day period is about 45.31 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.67 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Quanex Building will likely underperform. Additionally Quanex Building Products has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Quanex Building Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Quanex Building
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Quanex Building Products. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Quanex Building's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Quanex Building Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Quanex Building is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Quanex Building's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Quanex Building Products, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Quanex Building within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0051 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.67 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.28 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
Quanex Building Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Quanex Building for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Quanex Building Products can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Quanex Building is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Quanex Building has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Quanex Building Products Q4 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates |
Quanex Building Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Quanex Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Quanex Building's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Quanex Building's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 33 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 58.5 M |
Quanex Building Technical Analysis
Quanex Building's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Quanex Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Quanex Building Products. In general, you should focus on analyzing Quanex Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Quanex Building Predictive Forecast Models
Quanex Building's time-series forecasting models is one of many Quanex Building's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Quanex Building's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Quanex Building Products
Checking the ongoing alerts about Quanex Building for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Quanex Building Products help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Quanex Building is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Quanex Building has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Quanex Building Products Q4 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates |
Additional Tools for Quanex Stock Analysis
When running Quanex Building's price analysis, check to measure Quanex Building's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Quanex Building is operating at the current time. Most of Quanex Building's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Quanex Building's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Quanex Building's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Quanex Building to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.