Novavax Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 7.77
| NVAX Stock | USD 9.11 0.09 1.00% |
Novavax |
Novavax Target Price Odds to finish below 7.77
The tendency of Novavax Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 7.77 or more in 90 days |
| 9.11 | 90 days | 7.77 | about 9.6 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Novavax to drop to $ 7.77 or more in 90 days from now is about 9.6 (This Novavax probability density function shows the probability of Novavax Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Novavax price to stay between $ 7.77 and its current price of $9.11 at the end of the 90-day period is about 16.18 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Novavax has a beta of 0.41. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Novavax average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Novavax will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Novavax has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Novavax Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Novavax
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Novavax. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Novavax Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Novavax is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Novavax's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Novavax, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Novavax within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.31 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.41 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Novavax Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Novavax for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Novavax can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Novavax generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Novavax has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 983.71 M. Net Loss for the year was (545.06 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (156.04 M). | |
| Novavax currently holds about 1.28 B in cash with (713.97 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 16.31, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Novavax has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 60.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Novavax Inc Achieves Key Milestone in Sanofi Partnership |
Novavax Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Novavax Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Novavax's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Novavax's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 100.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 568.5 M |
Novavax Technical Analysis
Novavax's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Novavax Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Novavax. In general, you should focus on analyzing Novavax Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Novavax Predictive Forecast Models
Novavax's time-series forecasting models is one of many Novavax's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Novavax's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Novavax
Checking the ongoing alerts about Novavax for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Novavax help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Novavax generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Novavax has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 983.71 M. Net Loss for the year was (545.06 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (156.04 M). | |
| Novavax currently holds about 1.28 B in cash with (713.97 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 16.31, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Novavax has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 60.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Novavax Inc Achieves Key Milestone in Sanofi Partnership |
Additional Tools for Novavax Stock Analysis
When running Novavax's price analysis, check to measure Novavax's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novavax is operating at the current time. Most of Novavax's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novavax's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novavax's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novavax to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.