Natura Co Holding Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 4.33
| NTCODelisted Stock | USD 7.52 0.24 3.30% |
Natura |
Natura Co Target Price Odds to finish over 4.33
The tendency of Natura Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 4.33 in 90 days |
| 7.52 | 90 days | 4.33 | about 92.75 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Natura Co to stay above $ 4.33 in 90 days from now is about 92.75 (This Natura Co Holding probability density function shows the probability of Natura Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Natura Co Holding price to stay between $ 4.33 and its current price of $7.52 at the end of the 90-day period is about 87.05 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Natura Co Holding has a beta of -0.25. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Natura Co are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Natura Co Holding is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Natura Co Holding has an alpha of 0.9932, implying that it can generate a 0.99 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Natura Co Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Natura Co
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Natura Co Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Natura Co's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Natura Co Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Natura Co is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Natura Co's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Natura Co Holding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Natura Co within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.99 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.25 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.26 |
Natura Co Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Natura Co for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Natura Co Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Natura Co Holding is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Natura Co Holding has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Natura Co Holding currently holds about 4.28 B in cash with (1.37 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.23. |
Natura Co Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Natura Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Natura Co's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Natura Co's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 687.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6 B |
Natura Co Technical Analysis
Natura Co's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Natura Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Natura Co Holding. In general, you should focus on analyzing Natura Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Natura Co Predictive Forecast Models
Natura Co's time-series forecasting models is one of many Natura Co's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Natura Co's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Natura Co Holding
Checking the ongoing alerts about Natura Co for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Natura Co Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Natura Co Holding is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Natura Co Holding has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Natura Co Holding currently holds about 4.28 B in cash with (1.37 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.23. |
Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in main economic indicators. You can also try the Latest Portfolios module to quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios.
Other Consideration for investing in Natura Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Natura Co Holding check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Natura Co's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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