National Reinsurance (Philippines) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.37
| NRCP Stock | 0.70 0.02 2.94% |
National |
National Reinsurance Target Price Odds to finish below 0.37
The tendency of National Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 0.37 or more in 90 days |
| 0.70 | 90 days | 0.37 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of National Reinsurance to drop to 0.37 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This National Reinsurance probability density function shows the probability of National Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of National Reinsurance price to stay between 0.37 and its current price of 0.7 at the end of the 90-day period is about 28.8 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon National Reinsurance has a beta of -1.98. This indicates as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding National Reinsurance are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, National Reinsurance is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally National Reinsurance has an alpha of 0.1922, implying that it can generate a 0.19 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). National Reinsurance Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for National Reinsurance
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Reinsurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.National Reinsurance Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. National Reinsurance is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the National Reinsurance's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold National Reinsurance, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of National Reinsurance within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.19 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -1.98 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.09 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
National Reinsurance Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of National Reinsurance for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for National Reinsurance can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| National Reinsurance generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| National Reinsurance has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| National Reinsurance has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| National Reinsurance has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| National Reinsurance has accumulated about 658.19 M in cash with (22.79 M) of positive cash flow from operations. |
National Reinsurance Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of National Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential National Reinsurance's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Reinsurance's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.1 B |
National Reinsurance Technical Analysis
National Reinsurance's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. National Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of National Reinsurance. In general, you should focus on analyzing National Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
National Reinsurance Predictive Forecast Models
National Reinsurance's time-series forecasting models is one of many National Reinsurance's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary National Reinsurance's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about National Reinsurance
Checking the ongoing alerts about National Reinsurance for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for National Reinsurance help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| National Reinsurance generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| National Reinsurance has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| National Reinsurance has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| National Reinsurance has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| National Reinsurance has accumulated about 658.19 M in cash with (22.79 M) of positive cash flow from operations. |
Additional Tools for National Stock Analysis
When running National Reinsurance's price analysis, check to measure National Reinsurance's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National Reinsurance is operating at the current time. Most of National Reinsurance's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National Reinsurance's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National Reinsurance's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National Reinsurance to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.