Nishat Mills (Pakistan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 90.17

NML Stock   81.98  0.01  0.01%   
Nishat Mills' future price is the expected price of Nishat Mills instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Nishat Mills performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Nishat Mills Backtesting, Nishat Mills Valuation, Nishat Mills Correlation, Nishat Mills Hype Analysis, Nishat Mills Volatility, Nishat Mills History as well as Nishat Mills Performance.
  
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Nishat Mills Target Price Odds to finish over 90.17

The tendency of Nishat Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over  90.17  or more in 90 days
 81.98 90 days 90.17 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Nishat Mills to move over  90.17  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Nishat Mills probability density function shows the probability of Nishat Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Nishat Mills price to stay between its current price of  81.98  and  90.17  at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.36 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Nishat Mills has a beta of 0.0614. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Nishat Mills average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Nishat Mills will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Nishat Mills has an alpha of 0.4368, implying that it can generate a 0.44 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Nishat Mills Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Nishat Mills

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nishat Mills. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
79.8981.9784.05
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
61.0463.1290.17
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
82.2984.3786.45
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
73.4576.8580.25
Details

Nishat Mills Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Nishat Mills is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Nishat Mills' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Nishat Mills, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Nishat Mills within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.44
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.06
σ
Overall volatility
6.29
Ir
Information ratio 0.17

Nishat Mills Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Nishat Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Nishat Mills' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Nishat Mills' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding351.6 M
Dividends PaidB
Short Long Term Debt34.9 B

Nishat Mills Technical Analysis

Nishat Mills' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Nishat Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Nishat Mills. In general, you should focus on analyzing Nishat Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Nishat Mills Predictive Forecast Models

Nishat Mills' time-series forecasting models is one of many Nishat Mills' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Nishat Mills' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Nishat Mills in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Nishat Mills' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Nishat Mills options trading.

Additional Tools for Nishat Stock Analysis

When running Nishat Mills' price analysis, check to measure Nishat Mills' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Nishat Mills is operating at the current time. Most of Nishat Mills' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Nishat Mills' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Nishat Mills' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Nishat Mills to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.