Nl Industries Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 7.09
| NL Stock | USD 7.95 0.01 0.13% |
NL Industries |
NL Industries Target Price Odds to finish below 7.09
The tendency of NL Industries Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 7.09 or more in 90 days |
| 7.95 | 90 days | 7.09 | under 4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of NL Industries to drop to $ 7.09 or more in 90 days from now is under 4 (This NL Industries probability density function shows the probability of NL Industries Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of NL Industries price to stay between $ 7.09 and its current price of $7.95 at the end of the 90-day period is about 63.79 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.11 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, NL Industries will likely underperform. Additionally NL Industries has an alpha of 0.2012, implying that it can generate a 0.2 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). NL Industries Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for NL Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NL Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.NL Industries Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. NL Industries is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the NL Industries' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold NL Industries, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of NL Industries within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.20 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.38 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
NL Industries Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of NL Industries for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for NL Industries can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| NL Industries had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company generated the yearly revenue of 161.29 M. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (2.31 M) with gross profit of 48.8 M. | |
| NL Industries has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 83.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| On 17th of December 2024 NL Industries paid $ 0.08 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: NL Industries enters new credit agreement |
NL Industries Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of NL Industries Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential NL Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NL Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 48.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 164.7 M |
NL Industries Technical Analysis
NL Industries' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. NL Industries Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of NL Industries. In general, you should focus on analyzing NL Industries Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
NL Industries Predictive Forecast Models
NL Industries' time-series forecasting models is one of many NL Industries' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary NL Industries' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about NL Industries
Checking the ongoing alerts about NL Industries for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for NL Industries help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| NL Industries had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company generated the yearly revenue of 161.29 M. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (2.31 M) with gross profit of 48.8 M. | |
| NL Industries has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 83.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| On 17th of December 2024 NL Industries paid $ 0.08 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: NL Industries enters new credit agreement |
Check out NL Industries Backtesting, NL Industries Valuation, NL Industries Correlation, NL Industries Hype Analysis, NL Industries Volatility, NL Industries History as well as NL Industries Performance. For more information on how to buy NL Industries Stock please use our How to buy in NL Industries Stock guide.You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.
Is Commercial Services & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of NL Industries. If investors know NL Industries will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about NL Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.382 | Dividend Share 0.31 | Earnings Share 1.19 | Revenue Per Share 3.085 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.17) |
The market value of NL Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of NL Industries that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of NL Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is NL Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because NL Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect NL Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between NL Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if NL Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, NL Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.