NICO HOLDINGS (Malawi) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 321.29
| NICO Stock | 320.01 0.01 0% |
NICO |
NICO HOLDINGS Target Price Odds to finish below 321.29
The tendency of NICO Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 321.29 after 90 days |
| 320.01 | 90 days | 321.29 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of NICO HOLDINGS to stay under 321.29 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This NICO HOLDINGS LIMITED probability density function shows the probability of NICO Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of NICO HOLDINGS LIMITED price to stay between its current price of 320.01 and 321.29 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon NICO HOLDINGS LIMITED has a beta of -0.0621. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding NICO HOLDINGS are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, NICO HOLDINGS LIMITED is likely to outperform the market. Additionally NICO HOLDINGS LIMITED has an alpha of 0.7562, implying that it can generate a 0.76 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). NICO HOLDINGS Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for NICO HOLDINGS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NICO HOLDINGS LIMITED. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.NICO HOLDINGS Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. NICO HOLDINGS is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the NICO HOLDINGS's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold NICO HOLDINGS LIMITED, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of NICO HOLDINGS within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.76 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 40.35 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.23 |
NICO HOLDINGS Technical Analysis
NICO HOLDINGS's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. NICO Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of NICO HOLDINGS LIMITED. In general, you should focus on analyzing NICO Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
NICO HOLDINGS Predictive Forecast Models
NICO HOLDINGS's time-series forecasting models is one of many NICO HOLDINGS's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary NICO HOLDINGS's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards NICO HOLDINGS in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, NICO HOLDINGS's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from NICO HOLDINGS options trading.
Additional Tools for NICO Stock Analysis
When running NICO HOLDINGS's price analysis, check to measure NICO HOLDINGS's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NICO HOLDINGS is operating at the current time. Most of NICO HOLDINGS's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NICO HOLDINGS's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NICO HOLDINGS's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NICO HOLDINGS to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.