National Bank (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 32.46
| NB9 Stock | EUR 39.40 0.68 1.76% |
National |
National Bank Target Price Odds to finish below 32.46
The tendency of National Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 32.46 or more in 90 days |
| 39.40 | 90 days | 32.46 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of National Bank to drop to € 32.46 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This National Bank Holdings probability density function shows the probability of National Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of National Bank Holdings price to stay between € 32.46 and its current price of €39.4 at the end of the 90-day period is about 15.72 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon National Bank Holdings has a beta of -0.28. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding National Bank are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, National Bank Holdings is likely to outperform the market. Additionally National Bank Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. National Bank Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for National Bank
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Bank Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.National Bank Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. National Bank is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the National Bank's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold National Bank Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of National Bank within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.19 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.28 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.80 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
National Bank Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of National Bank for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for National Bank Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| National Bank generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 89.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
National Bank Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of National Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential National Bank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Bank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 37.6 M |
National Bank Technical Analysis
National Bank's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. National Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of National Bank Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing National Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
National Bank Predictive Forecast Models
National Bank's time-series forecasting models is one of many National Bank's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary National Bank's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about National Bank Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about National Bank for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for National Bank Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| National Bank generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 89.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in National Stock
When determining whether National Bank Holdings offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of National Bank's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of National Bank Holdings Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on National Bank Holdings Stock:Check out National Bank Backtesting, National Bank Valuation, National Bank Correlation, National Bank Hype Analysis, National Bank Volatility, National Bank History as well as National Bank Performance. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.