Meritage Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 185.66
| MTH Stock | USD 155.97 0.13 0.08% |
Meritage |
Meritage Target Price Odds to finish over 185.66
The tendency of Meritage Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 185.66 or more in 90 days |
| 155.97 | 90 days | 185.66 | about 48.97 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Meritage to move over $ 185.66 or more in 90 days from now is about 48.97 (This Meritage probability density function shows the probability of Meritage Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Meritage price to stay between its current price of $ 155.97 and $ 185.66 at the end of the 90-day period is about 49.74 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Meritage has a beta of 0.86. This indicates Meritage market returns are responsive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Meritage is expected to follow. Additionally Meritage has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Meritage Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Meritage
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Meritage. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Meritage's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Meritage Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Meritage is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Meritage's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Meritage, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Meritage within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.43 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.86 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 13.15 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.2 |
Meritage Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Meritage for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Meritage can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Meritage generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Meritage is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Meritage Homes Co. Given Average Recommendation of Hold by Analysts - MarketBeat |
Meritage Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Meritage Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Meritage's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Meritage's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 37.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 921.2 M |
Meritage Technical Analysis
Meritage's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Meritage Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Meritage. In general, you should focus on analyzing Meritage Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Meritage Predictive Forecast Models
Meritage's time-series forecasting models is one of many Meritage's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Meritage's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Meritage
Checking the ongoing alerts about Meritage for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Meritage help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Meritage generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Meritage is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Meritage Homes Co. Given Average Recommendation of Hold by Analysts - MarketBeat |
Check out Meritage Backtesting, Meritage Valuation, Meritage Correlation, Meritage Hype Analysis, Meritage Volatility, Meritage History as well as Meritage Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Meritage Stock please use our How to Invest in Meritage guide.You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Is Household Durables space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Meritage. If investors know Meritage will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Meritage listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.11) | Dividend Share 2.52 | Earnings Share 22.1 | Revenue Per Share 177.112 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) |
The market value of Meritage is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Meritage that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Meritage's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Meritage's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Meritage's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Meritage's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Meritage's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Meritage is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Meritage's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.