Morguard North American Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 18.66
| MRG-UN Stock | CAD 17.13 0.07 0.41% |
Morguard |
Morguard North Target Price Odds to finish over 18.66
The tendency of Morguard Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over C$ 18.66 or more in 90 days |
| 17.13 | 90 days | 18.66 | about 29.46 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Morguard North to move over C$ 18.66 or more in 90 days from now is about 29.46 (This Morguard North American probability density function shows the probability of Morguard Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Morguard North American price to stay between its current price of C$ 17.13 and C$ 18.66 at the end of the 90-day period is about 69.94 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Morguard North has a beta of 0.17. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Morguard North average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Morguard North American will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Morguard North American has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Morguard North Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Morguard North
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Morguard North American. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Morguard North's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Morguard North Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Morguard North is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Morguard North's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Morguard North American, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Morguard North within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.17 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.50 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
Morguard North Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Morguard North for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Morguard North American can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Morguard North generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Morguard North American has accumulated 1.56 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 1.14, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Morguard North American has a current ratio of 0.36, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Morguard North until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Morguard North's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Morguard North American sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Morguard to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Morguard North's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 27.0% of Morguard North outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Morguard North American Residential REIT Declares December 2024 Distribution of 0.06333 per Unit - Barchart |
Morguard North Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Morguard Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Morguard North's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Morguard North's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 58.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 17.8 M |
Morguard North Technical Analysis
Morguard North's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Morguard Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Morguard North American. In general, you should focus on analyzing Morguard Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Morguard North Predictive Forecast Models
Morguard North's time-series forecasting models is one of many Morguard North's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Morguard North's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Morguard North American
Checking the ongoing alerts about Morguard North for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Morguard North American help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Morguard North generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Morguard North American has accumulated 1.56 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 1.14, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Morguard North American has a current ratio of 0.36, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Morguard North until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Morguard North's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Morguard North American sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Morguard to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Morguard North's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 27.0% of Morguard North outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Morguard North American Residential REIT Declares December 2024 Distribution of 0.06333 per Unit - Barchart |
Other Information on Investing in Morguard Stock
Morguard North financial ratios help investors to determine whether Morguard Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Morguard with respect to the benefits of owning Morguard North security.