Medibank Private (Australia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 3.9
| MPL Stock | 3.76 0.02 0.53% |
Medibank |
Medibank Private Target Price Odds to finish below 3.9
The tendency of Medibank Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 3.90 after 90 days |
| 3.76 | 90 days | 3.90 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Medibank Private to stay under 3.90 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Medibank Private probability density function shows the probability of Medibank Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Medibank Private price to stay between its current price of 3.76 and 3.90 at the end of the 90-day period is about 24.26 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Medibank Private has a beta of 0.23. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Medibank Private average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Medibank Private will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Medibank Private has an alpha of 0.0434, implying that it can generate a 0.0434 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Medibank Private Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Medibank Private
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Medibank Private. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Medibank Private Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Medibank Private is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Medibank Private's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Medibank Private, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Medibank Private within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.23 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.07 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
Medibank Private Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Medibank Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Medibank Private's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Medibank Private's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.8 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 927.9 M |
Medibank Private Technical Analysis
Medibank Private's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Medibank Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Medibank Private. In general, you should focus on analyzing Medibank Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Medibank Private Predictive Forecast Models
Medibank Private's time-series forecasting models is one of many Medibank Private's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Medibank Private's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Medibank Private in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Medibank Private's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Medibank Private options trading.
Additional Tools for Medibank Stock Analysis
When running Medibank Private's price analysis, check to measure Medibank Private's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Medibank Private is operating at the current time. Most of Medibank Private's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Medibank Private's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Medibank Private's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Medibank Private to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.