Merit Medical Systems Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 93.80
| MMSI Stock | USD 97.61 0.61 0.62% |
Merit |
Merit Medical Target Price Odds to finish below 93.80
The tendency of Merit Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 93.80 or more in 90 days |
| 97.61 | 90 days | 93.80 | about 5.6 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Merit Medical to drop to $ 93.80 or more in 90 days from now is about 5.6 (This Merit Medical Systems probability density function shows the probability of Merit Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Merit Medical Systems price to stay between $ 93.80 and its current price of $97.61 at the end of the 90-day period is about 22.61 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Merit Medical has a beta of 0.62. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Merit Medical average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Merit Medical Systems will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Merit Medical Systems has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Merit Medical Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Merit Medical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merit Medical Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Merit Medical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Merit Medical Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Merit Medical is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Merit Medical's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Merit Medical Systems, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Merit Medical within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.62 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.78 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Merit Medical Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Merit Medical for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Merit Medical Systems can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Merit Medical generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from massdevice.com: FDA approves Merit Medicals cell-impermeable endoprosthesis |
Merit Medical Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Merit Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Merit Medical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Merit Medical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 58.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 589.1 M |
Merit Medical Technical Analysis
Merit Medical's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Merit Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Merit Medical Systems. In general, you should focus on analyzing Merit Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Merit Medical Predictive Forecast Models
Merit Medical's time-series forecasting models is one of many Merit Medical's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Merit Medical's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Merit Medical Systems
Checking the ongoing alerts about Merit Medical for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Merit Medical Systems help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Merit Medical generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from massdevice.com: FDA approves Merit Medicals cell-impermeable endoprosthesis |
Check out Merit Medical Backtesting, Merit Medical Valuation, Merit Medical Correlation, Merit Medical Hype Analysis, Merit Medical Volatility, Merit Medical History as well as Merit Medical Performance. You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
Is Health Care Equipment & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Merit Medical. If investors know Merit will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Merit Medical listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.091 | Earnings Share 2.05 | Revenue Per Share 22.847 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.078 | Return On Assets 0.0456 |
The market value of Merit Medical Systems is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Merit that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Merit Medical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Merit Medical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Merit Medical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Merit Medical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Merit Medical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Merit Medical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Merit Medical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.