Mesa Air Group Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.87
| MESA Stock | USD 1.07 0.02 1.90% |
Mesa |
Mesa Air Target Price Odds to finish below 0.87
The tendency of Mesa Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 0.87 or more in 90 days |
| 1.07 | 90 days | 0.87 | about 11.18 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mesa Air to drop to $ 0.87 or more in 90 days from now is about 11.18 (This Mesa Air Group probability density function shows the probability of Mesa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mesa Air Group price to stay between $ 0.87 and its current price of $1.07 at the end of the 90-day period is about 47.25 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Mesa Air has a beta of 0.0931. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Mesa Air average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Mesa Air Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Mesa Air Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Mesa Air Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Mesa Air
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mesa Air Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mesa Air's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mesa Air Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mesa Air is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mesa Air's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mesa Air Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mesa Air within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.14 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
Mesa Air Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mesa Air for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mesa Air Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Mesa Air Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Mesa Air Group has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Mesa Air Group has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Mesa Air Group currently holds 541.01 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.59, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Mesa Air Group has a current ratio of 0.39, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Mesa Air's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 498.06 M. Net Loss for the year was (120.12 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 115.04 M. | |
| Mesa Air Group currently holds about 54.45 M in cash with (24.09 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.5, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Mesa Air Group has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 22.0% of Mesa Air outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Mesa Air Group Announces Increased Utilization from Fourth Calendar Quarter 2024 to First Calendar Quarter 2025 |
Mesa Air Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Mesa Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Mesa Air's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mesa Air's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 39.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 32.9 M |
Mesa Air Technical Analysis
Mesa Air's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mesa Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mesa Air Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mesa Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Mesa Air Predictive Forecast Models
Mesa Air's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mesa Air's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mesa Air's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Mesa Air Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about Mesa Air for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Mesa Air Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Mesa Air Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Mesa Air Group has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Mesa Air Group has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Mesa Air Group currently holds 541.01 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.59, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Mesa Air Group has a current ratio of 0.39, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Mesa Air's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 498.06 M. Net Loss for the year was (120.12 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 115.04 M. | |
| Mesa Air Group currently holds about 54.45 M in cash with (24.09 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.5, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Mesa Air Group has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 22.0% of Mesa Air outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Mesa Air Group Announces Increased Utilization from Fourth Calendar Quarter 2024 to First Calendar Quarter 2025 |
Check out Mesa Air Backtesting, Mesa Air Valuation, Mesa Air Correlation, Mesa Air Hype Analysis, Mesa Air Volatility, Mesa Air History as well as Mesa Air Performance. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Is Passenger Airlines space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mesa Air. If investors know Mesa will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Mesa Air listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.136 | Earnings Share (2.30) | Revenue Per Share 11.589 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) | Return On Assets (0.01) |
The market value of Mesa Air Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Mesa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Mesa Air's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Mesa Air's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Mesa Air's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Mesa Air's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Mesa Air's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Mesa Air is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Mesa Air's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.