Microchip Technology (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 59.0
| MCP Stock | EUR 55.91 0.39 0.70% |
Microchip |
Microchip Technology Target Price Odds to finish below 59.0
The tendency of Microchip Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under € 59.00 after 90 days |
| 55.91 | 90 days | 59.00 | about 12.8 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Microchip Technology to stay under € 59.00 after 90 days from now is about 12.8 (This Microchip Technology Incorporated probability density function shows the probability of Microchip Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Microchip Technology price to stay between its current price of € 55.91 and € 59.00 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.41 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Microchip Technology has a beta of 0.4. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Microchip Technology average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Microchip Technology Incorporated will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Microchip Technology Incorporated has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Microchip Technology Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Microchip Technology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Microchip Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Microchip Technology Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Microchip Technology is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Microchip Technology's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Microchip Technology Incorporated, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Microchip Technology within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.3 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.40 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.46 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Microchip Technology Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Microchip Technology for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Microchip Technology can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Microchip Technology generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Microchip Technology has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Microchip Technology Incorporated has accumulated 7.69 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 194.9, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Microchip Technology has a current ratio of 0.91, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Microchip Technology until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Microchip Technology's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Microchip Technology sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Microchip to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Microchip Technology's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 93.0% of Microchip Technology shares are owned by institutional investors |
Microchip Technology Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Microchip Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Microchip Technology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Microchip Technology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 556 M |
Microchip Technology Technical Analysis
Microchip Technology's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Microchip Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Microchip Technology Incorporated. In general, you should focus on analyzing Microchip Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Microchip Technology Predictive Forecast Models
Microchip Technology's time-series forecasting models is one of many Microchip Technology's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Microchip Technology's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Microchip Technology
Checking the ongoing alerts about Microchip Technology for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Microchip Technology help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Microchip Technology generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Microchip Technology has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Microchip Technology Incorporated has accumulated 7.69 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 194.9, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Microchip Technology has a current ratio of 0.91, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Microchip Technology until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Microchip Technology's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Microchip Technology sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Microchip to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Microchip Technology's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 93.0% of Microchip Technology shares are owned by institutional investors |
Other Information on Investing in Microchip Stock
Microchip Technology financial ratios help investors to determine whether Microchip Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Microchip with respect to the benefits of owning Microchip Technology security.