MCH Group (Switzerland) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 2.42
| MCHN Stock | CHF 3.99 0.01 0.25% |
MCH |
MCH Group Target Price Odds to finish below 2.42
The tendency of MCH Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to ₣ 2.42 or more in 90 days |
| 3.99 | 90 days | 2.42 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of MCH Group to drop to ₣ 2.42 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This MCH Group AG probability density function shows the probability of MCH Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of MCH Group AG price to stay between ₣ 2.42 and its current price of ₣3.99 at the end of the 90-day period is about 17.39 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon MCH Group AG has a beta of -0.11. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding MCH Group are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, MCH Group AG is likely to outperform the market. Additionally MCH Group AG has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. MCH Group Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for MCH Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MCH Group AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.MCH Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. MCH Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the MCH Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold MCH Group AG, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of MCH Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.16 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
MCH Group Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of MCH Group for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for MCH Group AG can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| MCH Group AG generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| MCH Group AG has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| MCH Group AG has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company reported the revenue of 190.33 M. Net Loss for the year was (16.85 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 85.48 M. | |
| MCH Group AG has accumulated about 129.5 M in cash with (20.25 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 21.56, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 78.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
MCH Group Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of MCH Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential MCH Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MCH Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 14.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 113.7 M |
MCH Group Technical Analysis
MCH Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. MCH Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of MCH Group AG. In general, you should focus on analyzing MCH Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
MCH Group Predictive Forecast Models
MCH Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many MCH Group's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary MCH Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about MCH Group AG
Checking the ongoing alerts about MCH Group for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for MCH Group AG help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| MCH Group AG generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| MCH Group AG has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| MCH Group AG has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company reported the revenue of 190.33 M. Net Loss for the year was (16.85 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 85.48 M. | |
| MCH Group AG has accumulated about 129.5 M in cash with (20.25 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 21.56, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 78.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Additional Tools for MCH Stock Analysis
When running MCH Group's price analysis, check to measure MCH Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MCH Group is operating at the current time. Most of MCH Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MCH Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MCH Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MCH Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.