Mainstay Mackay California Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 9.87

MCAMX Fund  USD 9.90  0.01  0.10%   
Mainstay Mackay's future price is the expected price of Mainstay Mackay instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Mainstay Mackay California performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Mainstay Mackay Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Mainstay Mackay Correlation, Mainstay Mackay Hype Analysis, Mainstay Mackay Volatility, Mainstay Mackay History as well as Mainstay Mackay Performance.
  
Please specify Mainstay Mackay's target price for which you would like Mainstay Mackay odds to be computed.

Mainstay Mackay Target Price Odds to finish below 9.87

The tendency of Mainstay Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 9.87  or more in 90 days
 9.90 90 days 9.87 
about 88.2
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mainstay Mackay to drop to $ 9.87  or more in 90 days from now is about 88.2 (This Mainstay Mackay California probability density function shows the probability of Mainstay Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mainstay Mackay Cali price to stay between $ 9.87  and its current price of $9.9 at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.0 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Mainstay Mackay has a beta of 0.0273. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Mainstay Mackay average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Mainstay Mackay California will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Mainstay Mackay California has an alpha of 0.0039, implying that it can generate a 0.003909 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Mainstay Mackay Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Mainstay Mackay

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mainstay Mackay Cali. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.000.24
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.000.000.24
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
9.669.9010.14
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
9.679.809.93
Details

Mainstay Mackay Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mainstay Mackay is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mainstay Mackay's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mainstay Mackay California, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mainstay Mackay within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.03
σ
Overall volatility
0.06
Ir
Information ratio -0.51

Mainstay Mackay Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mainstay Mackay for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mainstay Mackay Cali can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund maintains about 8.33% of its assets in cash

Mainstay Mackay Technical Analysis

Mainstay Mackay's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mainstay Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mainstay Mackay California. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mainstay Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Mainstay Mackay Predictive Forecast Models

Mainstay Mackay's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mainstay Mackay's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mainstay Mackay's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Mainstay Mackay Cali

Checking the ongoing alerts about Mainstay Mackay for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Mainstay Mackay Cali help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund maintains about 8.33% of its assets in cash

Other Information on Investing in Mainstay Mutual Fund

Mainstay Mackay financial ratios help investors to determine whether Mainstay Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Mainstay with respect to the benefits of owning Mainstay Mackay security.
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