Mercantile Bank Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 54.08
| MBWM Stock | USD 44.49 0.19 0.43% |
Mercantile |
Mercantile Bank Target Price Odds to finish over 54.08
The tendency of Mercantile Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 54.08 or more in 90 days |
| 44.49 | 90 days | 54.08 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mercantile Bank to move over $ 54.08 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Mercantile Bank probability density function shows the probability of Mercantile Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mercantile Bank price to stay between its current price of $ 44.49 and $ 54.08 at the end of the 90-day period is about 68.41 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Mercantile Bank has a beta of 0.25. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Mercantile Bank average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Mercantile Bank will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Mercantile Bank has an alpha of 0.1084, implying that it can generate a 0.11 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Mercantile Bank Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Mercantile Bank
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mercantile Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mercantile Bank's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mercantile Bank Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mercantile Bank is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mercantile Bank's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mercantile Bank, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mercantile Bank within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.25 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.26 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
Mercantile Bank Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mercantile Bank for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mercantile Bank can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Mercantile Bank has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 64.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 18th of December 2024 Mercantile Bank paid $ 0.36 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: The First Bancorp, Inc. to Issue Quarterly Dividend of 0.36 |
Mercantile Bank Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Mercantile Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Mercantile Bank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mercantile Bank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 130.5 M |
Mercantile Bank Technical Analysis
Mercantile Bank's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mercantile Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mercantile Bank. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mercantile Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Mercantile Bank Predictive Forecast Models
Mercantile Bank's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mercantile Bank's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mercantile Bank's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.