Signify NV (Netherlands) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 20.94

LIGHT Stock  EUR 21.62  0.14  0.65%   
Signify NV's future price is the expected price of Signify NV instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Signify NV performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Signify NV Backtesting, Signify NV Valuation, Signify NV Correlation, Signify NV Hype Analysis, Signify NV Volatility, Signify NV History as well as Signify NV Performance.
  
Please specify Signify NV's target price for which you would like Signify NV odds to be computed.

Signify NV Target Price Odds to finish below 20.94

The tendency of Signify Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to € 20.94  or more in 90 days
 21.62 90 days 20.94 
about 12.28
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Signify NV to drop to € 20.94  or more in 90 days from now is about 12.28 (This Signify NV probability density function shows the probability of Signify Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Signify NV price to stay between € 20.94  and its current price of €21.62 at the end of the 90-day period is about 29.29 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Signify NV has a beta of -0.33. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Signify NV are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Signify NV is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Signify NV has an alpha of 0.1001, implying that it can generate a 0.1 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Signify NV Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Signify NV

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Signify NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Signify NV's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
19.3621.6223.88
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
16.2018.4623.78
Details

Signify NV Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Signify NV is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Signify NV's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Signify NV, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Signify NV within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.10
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.33
σ
Overall volatility
0.72
Ir
Information ratio -0.0087

Signify NV Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Signify NV for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Signify NV can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Signify NV has accumulated €1.49 Billion in debt which can lead to volatile earnings
Over 75.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors

Signify NV Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Signify Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Signify NV's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Signify NV's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding124.9 M

Signify NV Technical Analysis

Signify NV's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Signify Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Signify NV. In general, you should focus on analyzing Signify Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Signify NV Predictive Forecast Models

Signify NV's time-series forecasting models is one of many Signify NV's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Signify NV's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Signify NV

Checking the ongoing alerts about Signify NV for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Signify NV help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Signify NV has accumulated €1.49 Billion in debt which can lead to volatile earnings
Over 75.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors

Other Information on Investing in Signify Stock

Signify NV financial ratios help investors to determine whether Signify Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Signify with respect to the benefits of owning Signify NV security.