Kaiser Aluminum (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 67.70
| KLU1 Stock | EUR 75.00 0.50 0.66% |
Kaiser |
Kaiser Aluminum Target Price Odds to finish below 67.70
The tendency of Kaiser Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 67.70 or more in 90 days |
| 75.00 | 90 days | 67.70 | about 50.68 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Kaiser Aluminum to drop to € 67.70 or more in 90 days from now is about 50.68 (This Kaiser Aluminum probability density function shows the probability of Kaiser Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Kaiser Aluminum price to stay between € 67.70 and its current price of €75.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 37.44 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.63 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Kaiser Aluminum will likely underperform. Additionally Kaiser Aluminum has an alpha of 0.0091, implying that it can generate a 0.009087 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Kaiser Aluminum Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Kaiser Aluminum
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kaiser Aluminum. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Kaiser Aluminum Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Kaiser Aluminum is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Kaiser Aluminum's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Kaiser Aluminum, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Kaiser Aluminum within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.63 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.25 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
Kaiser Aluminum Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Kaiser Aluminum for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Kaiser Aluminum can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company reported the revenue of 3.43 B. Net Loss for the year was (29.6 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 247.7 M. | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Kaiser Aluminum Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Kaiser Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Kaiser Aluminum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kaiser Aluminum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 15.9 M |
Kaiser Aluminum Technical Analysis
Kaiser Aluminum's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Kaiser Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Kaiser Aluminum. In general, you should focus on analyzing Kaiser Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Kaiser Aluminum Predictive Forecast Models
Kaiser Aluminum's time-series forecasting models is one of many Kaiser Aluminum's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Kaiser Aluminum's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Kaiser Aluminum
Checking the ongoing alerts about Kaiser Aluminum for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Kaiser Aluminum help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company reported the revenue of 3.43 B. Net Loss for the year was (29.6 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 247.7 M. | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Kaiser Stock
When determining whether Kaiser Aluminum is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Kaiser Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Kaiser Aluminum Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Kaiser Aluminum Stock:Check out Kaiser Aluminum Backtesting, Kaiser Aluminum Valuation, Kaiser Aluminum Correlation, Kaiser Aluminum Hype Analysis, Kaiser Aluminum Volatility, Kaiser Aluminum History as well as Kaiser Aluminum Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Kaiser Stock please use our How to Invest in Kaiser Aluminum guide.You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.