COGNA EDUCACAO (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.01
| KE0A Stock | EUR 0.20 0.01 5.26% |
COGNA |
COGNA EDUCACAO Target Price Odds to finish below 0.01
The tendency of COGNA Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 0.01 or more in 90 days |
| 0.20 | 90 days | 0.01 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of COGNA EDUCACAO to drop to € 0.01 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This COGNA EDUCACAO SPADR probability density function shows the probability of COGNA Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of COGNA EDUCACAO SPADR price to stay between € 0.01 and its current price of €0.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 49.95 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.57 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, COGNA EDUCACAO will likely underperform. Additionally COGNA EDUCACAO SPADR has an alpha of 0.3739, implying that it can generate a 0.37 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). COGNA EDUCACAO Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for COGNA EDUCACAO
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as COGNA EDUCACAO SPADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.COGNA EDUCACAO Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. COGNA EDUCACAO is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the COGNA EDUCACAO's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold COGNA EDUCACAO SPADR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of COGNA EDUCACAO within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.37 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.57 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
COGNA EDUCACAO Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of COGNA EDUCACAO for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for COGNA EDUCACAO SPADR can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| COGNA EDUCACAO SPADR is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| COGNA EDUCACAO SPADR has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| COGNA EDUCACAO SPADR appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| COGNA EDUCACAO SPADR has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| COGNA EDUCACAO SPADR has accumulated 9.57 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.67, which is about average as compared to similar companies. COGNA EDUCACAO SPADR has a current ratio of 0.85, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist COGNA EDUCACAO until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, COGNA EDUCACAO's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like COGNA EDUCACAO SPADR sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for COGNA to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about COGNA EDUCACAO's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 4.93 B. Net Loss for the year was (3.63 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.32 B. |
COGNA EDUCACAO Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of COGNA Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential COGNA EDUCACAO's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. COGNA EDUCACAO's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Float Shares | 1.85B | |
| Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day | 625 | |
| Average Daily Volume In Three Month | 199 |
COGNA EDUCACAO Technical Analysis
COGNA EDUCACAO's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. COGNA Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of COGNA EDUCACAO SPADR. In general, you should focus on analyzing COGNA Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
COGNA EDUCACAO Predictive Forecast Models
COGNA EDUCACAO's time-series forecasting models is one of many COGNA EDUCACAO's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary COGNA EDUCACAO's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about COGNA EDUCACAO SPADR
Checking the ongoing alerts about COGNA EDUCACAO for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for COGNA EDUCACAO SPADR help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| COGNA EDUCACAO SPADR is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| COGNA EDUCACAO SPADR has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| COGNA EDUCACAO SPADR appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| COGNA EDUCACAO SPADR has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| COGNA EDUCACAO SPADR has accumulated 9.57 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.67, which is about average as compared to similar companies. COGNA EDUCACAO SPADR has a current ratio of 0.85, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist COGNA EDUCACAO until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, COGNA EDUCACAO's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like COGNA EDUCACAO SPADR sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for COGNA to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about COGNA EDUCACAO's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 4.93 B. Net Loss for the year was (3.63 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.32 B. |
Other Information on Investing in COGNA Stock
COGNA EDUCACAO financial ratios help investors to determine whether COGNA Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in COGNA with respect to the benefits of owning COGNA EDUCACAO security.