John Hancock Variable Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 16.71
| JAFUX Fund | USD 21.26 0.26 1.21% |
John |
John Hancock Target Price Odds to finish below 16.71
The tendency of John Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 16.71 or more in 90 days |
| 21.26 | 90 days | 16.71 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of John Hancock to drop to $ 16.71 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This John Hancock Variable probability density function shows the probability of John Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of John Hancock Variable price to stay between $ 16.71 and its current price of $21.26 at the end of the 90-day period is about 97.0 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon John Hancock has a beta of 0.13. This indicates as returns on the market go up, John Hancock average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding John Hancock Variable will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally John Hancock Variable has an alpha of 0.2422, implying that it can generate a 0.24 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). John Hancock Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for John Hancock
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as John Hancock Variable. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of John Hancock's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
John Hancock Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. John Hancock is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the John Hancock's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold John Hancock Variable, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of John Hancock within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.24 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.13 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.91 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.19 |
John Hancock Technical Analysis
John Hancock's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. John Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of John Hancock Variable. In general, you should focus on analyzing John Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
John Hancock Predictive Forecast Models
John Hancock's time-series forecasting models is one of many John Hancock's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary John Hancock's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards John Hancock in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, John Hancock's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from John Hancock options trading.
Other Information on Investing in John Mutual Fund
John Hancock financial ratios help investors to determine whether John Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in John with respect to the benefits of owning John Hancock security.
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