Illinois Tool Works Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 243.94
| ITW Stock | USD 258.82 0.00 0.00% |
Illinois |
Illinois Tool Target Price Odds to finish below 243.94
The tendency of Illinois Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 243.94 or more in 90 days |
| 258.82 | 90 days | 243.94 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Illinois Tool to drop to $ 243.94 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Illinois Tool Works probability density function shows the probability of Illinois Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Illinois Tool Works price to stay between $ 243.94 and its current price of $258.82 at the end of the 90-day period is about 19.68 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Illinois Tool has a beta of 0.85. This usually indicates Illinois Tool Works market returns are correlated to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Illinois Tool is expected to follow. Additionally Illinois Tool Works has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Illinois Tool Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Illinois Tool
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Illinois Tool Works. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Illinois Tool's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Illinois Tool Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Illinois Tool is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Illinois Tool's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Illinois Tool Works, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Illinois Tool within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.85 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 7.57 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.01 |
Illinois Tool Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Illinois Tool for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Illinois Tool Works can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Illinois Tool Works is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 83.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Illinois Tool Benefits From Business Strength Amid Headwinds |
Illinois Tool Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Illinois Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Illinois Tool's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Illinois Tool's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 303.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Illinois Tool Technical Analysis
Illinois Tool's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Illinois Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Illinois Tool Works. In general, you should focus on analyzing Illinois Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Illinois Tool Predictive Forecast Models
Illinois Tool's time-series forecasting models is one of many Illinois Tool's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Illinois Tool's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Illinois Tool Works
Checking the ongoing alerts about Illinois Tool for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Illinois Tool Works help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Illinois Tool Works is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 83.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Illinois Tool Benefits From Business Strength Amid Headwinds |
Additional Tools for Illinois Stock Analysis
When running Illinois Tool's price analysis, check to measure Illinois Tool's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Illinois Tool is operating at the current time. Most of Illinois Tool's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Illinois Tool's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Illinois Tool's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Illinois Tool to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.