Itama Ranoraya (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 426.77
| IRRA Stock | IDR 422.00 2.00 0.48% |
Itama |
Itama Ranoraya Target Price Odds to finish below 426.77
The tendency of Itama Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 426.77 after 90 days |
| 422.00 | 90 days | 426.77 | nearly 4.12 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Itama Ranoraya to stay under 426.77 after 90 days from now is nearly 4.12 (This Itama Ranoraya probability density function shows the probability of Itama Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Itama Ranoraya price to stay between its current price of 422.00 and 426.77 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.52 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Itama Ranoraya has a beta of 0.0267. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Itama Ranoraya average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Itama Ranoraya will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Itama Ranoraya has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Itama Ranoraya Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Itama Ranoraya
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Itama Ranoraya. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Itama Ranoraya Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Itama Ranoraya is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Itama Ranoraya's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Itama Ranoraya, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Itama Ranoraya within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.28 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 23.41 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.42 |
Itama Ranoraya Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Itama Ranoraya for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Itama Ranoraya can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Itama Ranoraya generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Itama Ranoraya has accumulated about 11.11 B in cash with (106.83 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 7.11. | |
| Roughly 81.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Itama Ranoraya Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Itama Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Itama Ranoraya's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Itama Ranoraya's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.6 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 135.3 B |
Itama Ranoraya Technical Analysis
Itama Ranoraya's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Itama Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Itama Ranoraya. In general, you should focus on analyzing Itama Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Itama Ranoraya Predictive Forecast Models
Itama Ranoraya's time-series forecasting models is one of many Itama Ranoraya's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Itama Ranoraya's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Itama Ranoraya
Checking the ongoing alerts about Itama Ranoraya for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Itama Ranoraya help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Itama Ranoraya generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Itama Ranoraya has accumulated about 11.11 B in cash with (106.83 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 7.11. | |
| Roughly 81.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Itama Stock
Itama Ranoraya financial ratios help investors to determine whether Itama Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Itama with respect to the benefits of owning Itama Ranoraya security.