Imperial Oil Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 107.27
| IMO Stock | CAD 100.29 2.16 2.11% |
Imperial |
Imperial Oil Target Price Odds to finish below 107.27
The tendency of Imperial Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under C$ 107.27 after 90 days |
| 100.29 | 90 days | 107.27 | about 89.32 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Imperial Oil to stay under C$ 107.27 after 90 days from now is about 89.32 (This Imperial Oil probability density function shows the probability of Imperial Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Imperial Oil price to stay between its current price of C$ 100.29 and C$ 107.27 at the end of the 90-day period is about 38.86 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Imperial Oil has a beta of 0.39. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Imperial Oil average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Imperial Oil will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Imperial Oil has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Imperial Oil Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Imperial Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Imperial Oil. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Imperial Oil Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Imperial Oil is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Imperial Oil's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Imperial Oil, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Imperial Oil within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0074 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.39 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.65 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Imperial Oil Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Imperial Oil for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Imperial Oil can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 72.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Where Will Imperial Oil Stock Be in 1 Year - The Motley Fool Canada |
Imperial Oil Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Imperial Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Imperial Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Imperial Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 575.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 864 M |
Imperial Oil Technical Analysis
Imperial Oil's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Imperial Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Imperial Oil. In general, you should focus on analyzing Imperial Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Imperial Oil Predictive Forecast Models
Imperial Oil's time-series forecasting models is one of many Imperial Oil's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Imperial Oil's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Imperial Oil
Checking the ongoing alerts about Imperial Oil for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Imperial Oil help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 72.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Where Will Imperial Oil Stock Be in 1 Year - The Motley Fool Canada |
Check out Imperial Oil Backtesting, Imperial Oil Valuation, Imperial Oil Correlation, Imperial Oil Hype Analysis, Imperial Oil Volatility, Imperial Oil History as well as Imperial Oil Performance. To learn how to invest in Imperial Stock, please use our How to Invest in Imperial Oil guide.You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.