International Business (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 141.64
| IBM Stock | EUR 216.00 0.20 0.09% |
International |
International Business Target Price Odds to finish below 141.64
The tendency of International Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 141.64 or more in 90 days |
| 216.00 | 90 days | 141.64 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of International Business to drop to € 141.64 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This International Business Machines probability density function shows the probability of International Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of International Business price to stay between € 141.64 and its current price of €216.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 83.06 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon International Business has a beta of 0.59. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, International Business average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding International Business Machines will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally International Business Machines has an alpha of 0.185, implying that it can generate a 0.19 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). International Business Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for International Business
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as International Business. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.International Business Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. International Business is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the International Business' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold International Business Machines, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of International Business within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.19 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.59 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 10.61 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
International Business Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of International Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential International Business' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. International Business' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 906.1 M | |
| Dividends Paid | -5.9 B | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 4.8 B |
International Business Technical Analysis
International Business' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. International Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of International Business Machines. In general, you should focus on analyzing International Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
International Business Predictive Forecast Models
International Business' time-series forecasting models is one of many International Business' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary International Business' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards International Business in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, International Business' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from International Business options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in International Stock
When determining whether International Business is a strong investment it is important to analyze International Business' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact International Business' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding International Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out International Business Backtesting, International Business Valuation, International Business Correlation, International Business Hype Analysis, International Business Volatility, International Business History as well as International Business Performance. You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.