Caravelle International Group Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 2.41
| HTCO Stock | USD 2.41 0.02 0.82% |
Caravelle |
Caravelle International Target Price Odds to finish below 2.41
The tendency of Caravelle Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 2.41 | 90 days | 2.41 | under 95 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Caravelle International to move below current price in 90 days from now is under 95 (This Caravelle International Group probability density function shows the probability of Caravelle Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Caravelle International has a beta of 0.33. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Caravelle International average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Caravelle International Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. In addition to that Caravelle International Group has an alpha of 3.0102, implying that it can generate a 3.01 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Caravelle International Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Caravelle International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Caravelle International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Caravelle International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Caravelle International Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Caravelle International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Caravelle International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Caravelle International Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Caravelle International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 3.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.33 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.68 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.26 |
Caravelle International Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Caravelle International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Caravelle International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Caravelle International is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Caravelle International appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Caravelle International Group was previously known as Caravelle International Group and was traded on NASDAQ Exchange under the symbol CACO. | |
| Caravelle International Group currently holds 4.15 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 2.86, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Caravelle International has a current ratio of 0.19, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Caravelle International's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 80.57 M. Net Loss for the year was (570.17 K) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Caravelle International Group currently holds about (1.17 K) in cash recording (142.85 K) of negative cash flow from operations. | |
| Caravelle International has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 76.0% of Caravelle International shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Parker Dale E of 675 shares of Caravelle International at 9.26 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Caravelle International Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Caravelle Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Caravelle International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Caravelle International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 52.8 M |
Caravelle International Technical Analysis
Caravelle International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Caravelle Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Caravelle International Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Caravelle Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Caravelle International Predictive Forecast Models
Caravelle International's time-series forecasting models is one of many Caravelle International's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Caravelle International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Caravelle International
Checking the ongoing alerts about Caravelle International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Caravelle International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Caravelle International is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Caravelle International appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Caravelle International Group was previously known as Caravelle International Group and was traded on NASDAQ Exchange under the symbol CACO. | |
| Caravelle International Group currently holds 4.15 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 2.86, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Caravelle International has a current ratio of 0.19, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Caravelle International's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 80.57 M. Net Loss for the year was (570.17 K) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Caravelle International Group currently holds about (1.17 K) in cash recording (142.85 K) of negative cash flow from operations. | |
| Caravelle International has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 76.0% of Caravelle International shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Parker Dale E of 675 shares of Caravelle International at 9.26 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out Caravelle International Backtesting, Caravelle International Valuation, Caravelle International Correlation, Caravelle International Hype Analysis, Caravelle International Volatility, Caravelle International History as well as Caravelle International Performance. You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Is Marine Transportation space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Caravelle International. If investors know Caravelle will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Caravelle International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.11) | Revenue Per Share 1.526 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.30) | Return On Assets (0.23) | Return On Equity (6.65) |
The market value of Caravelle International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Caravelle that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Caravelle International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Caravelle International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Caravelle International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Caravelle International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Caravelle International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Caravelle International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Caravelle International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.