Jaya Trishindo (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 288.34
| HELI Stock | 292.00 4.00 1.35% |
Jaya |
Jaya Trishindo Target Price Odds to finish below 288.34
The tendency of Jaya Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 288.34 or more in 90 days |
| 292.00 | 90 days | 288.34 | about 29.64 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Jaya Trishindo to drop to 288.34 or more in 90 days from now is about 29.64 (This Jaya Trishindo Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Jaya Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Jaya Trishindo Tbk price to stay between 288.34 and its current price of 292.0 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.83 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.43 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Jaya Trishindo will likely underperform. Additionally Jaya Trishindo Tbk has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Jaya Trishindo Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Jaya Trishindo
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Jaya Trishindo Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Jaya Trishindo Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Jaya Trishindo is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Jaya Trishindo's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Jaya Trishindo Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Jaya Trishindo within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.4 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.43 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 27.11 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Jaya Trishindo Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Jaya Trishindo for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Jaya Trishindo Tbk can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Jaya Trishindo Tbk generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Jaya Trishindo Tbk has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 85.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Jaya Trishindo Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Jaya Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Jaya Trishindo's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Jaya Trishindo's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 832.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 13.1 B |
Jaya Trishindo Technical Analysis
Jaya Trishindo's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Jaya Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Jaya Trishindo Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Jaya Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Jaya Trishindo Predictive Forecast Models
Jaya Trishindo's time-series forecasting models is one of many Jaya Trishindo's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Jaya Trishindo's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Jaya Trishindo Tbk
Checking the ongoing alerts about Jaya Trishindo for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Jaya Trishindo Tbk help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Jaya Trishindo Tbk generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Jaya Trishindo Tbk has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 85.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Jaya Stock
Jaya Trishindo financial ratios help investors to determine whether Jaya Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Jaya with respect to the benefits of owning Jaya Trishindo security.