Heidelberg Materials (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 115.98
| HEI Stock | EUR 174.20 7.35 4.41% |
Heidelberg |
Heidelberg Materials Target Price Odds to finish over 115.98
The tendency of Heidelberg Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above € 115.98 in 90 days |
| 174.20 | 90 days | 115.98 | about 92.49 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Heidelberg Materials to stay above € 115.98 in 90 days from now is about 92.49 (This Heidelberg Materials AG probability density function shows the probability of Heidelberg Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Heidelberg Materials price to stay between € 115.98 and its current price of €174.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 92.07 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Heidelberg Materials has a beta of 0.82. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Heidelberg Materials average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Heidelberg Materials AG will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Heidelberg Materials AG has an alpha of 0.6411, implying that it can generate a 0.64 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Heidelberg Materials Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Heidelberg Materials
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Heidelberg Materials. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Heidelberg Materials Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Heidelberg Materials is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Heidelberg Materials' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Heidelberg Materials AG, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Heidelberg Materials within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.64 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.82 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 14.29 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.24 |
Heidelberg Materials Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Heidelberg Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Heidelberg Materials' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Heidelberg Materials' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 193.1 M | |
| Dividends Paid | -436.5 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 1.3 B |
Heidelberg Materials Technical Analysis
Heidelberg Materials' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Heidelberg Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Heidelberg Materials AG. In general, you should focus on analyzing Heidelberg Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Heidelberg Materials Predictive Forecast Models
Heidelberg Materials' time-series forecasting models is one of many Heidelberg Materials' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Heidelberg Materials' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Heidelberg Materials in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Heidelberg Materials' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Heidelberg Materials options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Heidelberg Stock
Heidelberg Materials financial ratios help investors to determine whether Heidelberg Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Heidelberg with respect to the benefits of owning Heidelberg Materials security.