Home Depot Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 270.49
| HD Stock | USD 422.59 6.59 1.54% |
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Home Depot Target Price Odds to finish below 270.49
The tendency of Home Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 270.49 or more in 90 days |
| 422.59 | 90 days | 270.49 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Home Depot to drop to $ 270.49 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Home Depot probability density function shows the probability of Home Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Home Depot price to stay between $ 270.49 and its current price of $422.59 at the end of the 90-day period is about 88.61 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon Home Depot has a beta of 0.25. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Home Depot average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Home Depot will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Home Depot has an alpha of 0.1963, implying that it can generate a 0.2 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Home Depot Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Home Depot
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Home Depot. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Home Depot's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Home Depot Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Home Depot is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Home Depot's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Home Depot, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Home Depot within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.20 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.25 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 16.08 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
Home Depot Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Home Depot for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Home Depot can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Home Depot has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 72.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Walmart, Target launch two fastest-growing private-label brands |
Home Depot Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Home Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Home Depot's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Home Depot's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.8 B |
Home Depot Technical Analysis
Home Depot's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Home Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Home Depot. In general, you should focus on analyzing Home Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Home Depot Predictive Forecast Models
Home Depot's time-series forecasting models is one of many Home Depot's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Home Depot's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Home Depot
Checking the ongoing alerts about Home Depot for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Home Depot help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Home Depot has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 72.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Walmart, Target launch two fastest-growing private-label brands |
Check out Home Depot Backtesting, Home Depot Valuation, Home Depot Correlation, Home Depot Hype Analysis, Home Depot Volatility, Home Depot History as well as Home Depot Performance. For information on how to trade Home Stock refer to our How to Trade Home Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Is Home Improvement Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Home Depot. If investors know Home will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Home Depot listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.04) | Dividend Share 2.25 | Earnings Share 14.71 | Revenue Per Share 156.158 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.066 |
The market value of Home Depot is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Home that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Home Depot's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Home Depot's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Home Depot's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Home Depot's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Home Depot's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Home Depot is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Home Depot's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.