Goodyear Tire (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 7.39
| GTR Stock | 9.57 0.04 0.42% |
Goodyear |
Goodyear Tire Target Price Odds to finish below 7.39
The tendency of Goodyear Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 7.39 or more in 90 days |
| 9.57 | 90 days | 7.39 | about 19.96 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Goodyear Tire to drop to 7.39 or more in 90 days from now is about 19.96 (This Goodyear Tire Rubber probability density function shows the probability of Goodyear Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Goodyear Tire Rubber price to stay between 7.39 and its current price of 9.57 at the end of the 90-day period is about 70.94 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Goodyear Tire has a beta of 0.28. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Goodyear Tire average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Goodyear Tire Rubber will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Goodyear Tire Rubber has an alpha of 0.4922, implying that it can generate a 0.49 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Goodyear Tire Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Goodyear Tire
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Goodyear Tire Rubber. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Goodyear Tire's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Goodyear Tire Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Goodyear Tire is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Goodyear Tire's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Goodyear Tire Rubber, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Goodyear Tire within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.49 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.28 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.00 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.14 |
Goodyear Tire Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Goodyear Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Goodyear Tire's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Goodyear Tire's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 283 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 623 M |
Goodyear Tire Technical Analysis
Goodyear Tire's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Goodyear Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Goodyear Tire Rubber. In general, you should focus on analyzing Goodyear Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Goodyear Tire Predictive Forecast Models
Goodyear Tire's time-series forecasting models is one of many Goodyear Tire's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Goodyear Tire's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Goodyear Tire in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Goodyear Tire's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Goodyear Tire options trading.
Additional Tools for Goodyear Stock Analysis
When running Goodyear Tire's price analysis, check to measure Goodyear Tire's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Goodyear Tire is operating at the current time. Most of Goodyear Tire's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Goodyear Tire's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Goodyear Tire's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Goodyear Tire to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.