GUARANTY TRUST (Nigeria) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 56.21
| GTCO Stock | 57.95 0.80 1.36% |
GUARANTY |
GUARANTY TRUST Target Price Odds to finish over 56.21
The tendency of GUARANTY Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 56.21 in 90 days |
| 57.95 | 90 days | 56.21 | about 8.02 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of GUARANTY TRUST to stay above 56.21 in 90 days from now is about 8.02 (This GUARANTY TRUST HOLDING probability density function shows the probability of GUARANTY Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of GUARANTY TRUST HOLDING price to stay between 56.21 and its current price of 57.95 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.82 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon GUARANTY TRUST HOLDING has a beta of -0.13. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding GUARANTY TRUST are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, GUARANTY TRUST HOLDING is likely to outperform the market. Additionally GUARANTY TRUST HOLDING has an alpha of 0.3321, implying that it can generate a 0.33 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). GUARANTY TRUST Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for GUARANTY TRUST
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GUARANTY TRUST HOLDING. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.GUARANTY TRUST Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. GUARANTY TRUST is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the GUARANTY TRUST's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold GUARANTY TRUST HOLDING, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of GUARANTY TRUST within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.33 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.13 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.85 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.16 |
GUARANTY TRUST Technical Analysis
GUARANTY TRUST's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. GUARANTY Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of GUARANTY TRUST HOLDING. In general, you should focus on analyzing GUARANTY Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
GUARANTY TRUST Predictive Forecast Models
GUARANTY TRUST's time-series forecasting models is one of many GUARANTY TRUST's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary GUARANTY TRUST's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards GUARANTY TRUST in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, GUARANTY TRUST's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from GUARANTY TRUST options trading.