Gajah Tunggal (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1105.0
| GJTL Stock | IDR 1,165 65.00 5.91% |
Gajah |
Gajah Tunggal Target Price Odds to finish below 1105.0
The tendency of Gajah Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 1,105 or more in 90 days |
| 1,165 | 90 days | 1,105 | nearly 4.08 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Gajah Tunggal to drop to 1,105 or more in 90 days from now is nearly 4.08 (This Gajah Tunggal Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Gajah Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Gajah Tunggal Tbk price to stay between 1,105 and its current price of 1165.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 16.12 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Gajah Tunggal Tbk has a beta of -0.49. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Gajah Tunggal are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Gajah Tunggal Tbk is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Gajah Tunggal Tbk has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Gajah Tunggal Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Gajah Tunggal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gajah Tunggal Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Gajah Tunggal Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Gajah Tunggal is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Gajah Tunggal's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Gajah Tunggal Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Gajah Tunggal within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.49 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 66.41 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
Gajah Tunggal Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Gajah Tunggal for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Gajah Tunggal Tbk can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Gajah Tunggal Tbk generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 66.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Gajah Tunggal Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Gajah Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Gajah Tunggal's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Gajah Tunggal's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.5 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 T |
Gajah Tunggal Technical Analysis
Gajah Tunggal's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Gajah Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Gajah Tunggal Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Gajah Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Gajah Tunggal Predictive Forecast Models
Gajah Tunggal's time-series forecasting models is one of many Gajah Tunggal's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Gajah Tunggal's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Gajah Tunggal Tbk
Checking the ongoing alerts about Gajah Tunggal for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Gajah Tunggal Tbk help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Gajah Tunggal Tbk generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 66.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Gajah Stock
Gajah Tunggal financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gajah Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gajah with respect to the benefits of owning Gajah Tunggal security.