Grandeur Peak International Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 16.81

GISYX Fund  USD 17.01  0.20  1.19%   
Grandeur Peak's future price is the expected price of Grandeur Peak instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Grandeur Peak International performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Grandeur Peak Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Grandeur Peak Correlation, Grandeur Peak Hype Analysis, Grandeur Peak Volatility, Grandeur Peak History as well as Grandeur Peak Performance.
  
Please specify Grandeur Peak's target price for which you would like Grandeur Peak odds to be computed.

Grandeur Peak Target Price Odds to finish over 16.81

The tendency of Grandeur Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 16.81  in 90 days
 17.01 90 days 16.81 
about 82.75
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Grandeur Peak to stay above $ 16.81  in 90 days from now is about 82.75 (This Grandeur Peak International probability density function shows the probability of Grandeur Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Grandeur Peak Intern price to stay between $ 16.81  and its current price of $17.01 at the end of the 90-day period is about 11.05 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Grandeur Peak has a beta of 0.6. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Grandeur Peak average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Grandeur Peak International will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Grandeur Peak International has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Grandeur Peak Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Grandeur Peak

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grandeur Peak Intern. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Grandeur Peak's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
16.1217.0117.90
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
16.2017.0917.98
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
16.2417.1318.01
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
16.5016.7116.92
Details

Grandeur Peak Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Grandeur Peak is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Grandeur Peak's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Grandeur Peak International, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Grandeur Peak within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.17
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.60
σ
Overall volatility
0.54
Ir
Information ratio -0.22

Grandeur Peak Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Grandeur Peak for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Grandeur Peak Intern can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Grandeur Peak Intern generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The fund generated three year return of -13.0%
Grandeur Peak Intern retains 98.91% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities

Grandeur Peak Technical Analysis

Grandeur Peak's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Grandeur Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Grandeur Peak International. In general, you should focus on analyzing Grandeur Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Grandeur Peak Predictive Forecast Models

Grandeur Peak's time-series forecasting models is one of many Grandeur Peak's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Grandeur Peak's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Grandeur Peak Intern

Checking the ongoing alerts about Grandeur Peak for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Grandeur Peak Intern help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Grandeur Peak Intern generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The fund generated three year return of -13.0%
Grandeur Peak Intern retains 98.91% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities

Other Information on Investing in Grandeur Mutual Fund

Grandeur Peak financial ratios help investors to determine whether Grandeur Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Grandeur with respect to the benefits of owning Grandeur Peak security.
Money Managers
Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world
Competition Analyzer
Analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities
Insider Screener
Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance
Sectors
List of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities