Guggenheim Total Return Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 23.92

GIBCX Fund  USD 23.86  0.04  0.17%   
Guggenheim Total's future price is the expected price of Guggenheim Total instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Guggenheim Total Return performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Guggenheim Total Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Guggenheim Total Correlation, Guggenheim Total Hype Analysis, Guggenheim Total Volatility, Guggenheim Total History as well as Guggenheim Total Performance.
  
Please specify Guggenheim Total's target price for which you would like Guggenheim Total odds to be computed.

Guggenheim Total Target Price Odds to finish below 23.92

The tendency of Guggenheim Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 23.92  after 90 days
 23.86 90 days 23.92 
about 50.62
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Guggenheim Total to stay under $ 23.92  after 90 days from now is about 50.62 (This Guggenheim Total Return probability density function shows the probability of Guggenheim Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Guggenheim Total Return price to stay between its current price of $ 23.86  and $ 23.92  at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.52 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Guggenheim Total has a beta of 0.0581. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Guggenheim Total average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Guggenheim Total Return will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Guggenheim Total Return has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Guggenheim Total Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Guggenheim Total

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Guggenheim Total Return. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guggenheim Total's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
23.6223.9024.18
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
23.6423.9224.20
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
23.7524.0324.30
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
23.6323.7723.91
Details

Guggenheim Total Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Guggenheim Total is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Guggenheim Total's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Guggenheim Total Return, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Guggenheim Total within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.02
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.06
σ
Overall volatility
0.25
Ir
Information ratio -0.53

Guggenheim Total Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Guggenheim Total for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Guggenheim Total Return can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Guggenheim Total generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The fund generated three year return of -3.0%
Guggenheim Total Return retains about 9.62% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities

Guggenheim Total Technical Analysis

Guggenheim Total's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Guggenheim Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Guggenheim Total Return. In general, you should focus on analyzing Guggenheim Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Guggenheim Total Predictive Forecast Models

Guggenheim Total's time-series forecasting models is one of many Guggenheim Total's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Guggenheim Total's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Guggenheim Total Return

Checking the ongoing alerts about Guggenheim Total for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Guggenheim Total Return help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Guggenheim Total generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The fund generated three year return of -3.0%
Guggenheim Total Return retains about 9.62% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities

Other Information on Investing in Guggenheim Mutual Fund

Guggenheim Total financial ratios help investors to determine whether Guggenheim Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Guggenheim with respect to the benefits of owning Guggenheim Total security.
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