Golden Agri Resources Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 19.78
| GARPY Stock | USD 20.80 0.80 4.00% |
Golden |
Golden Agri Target Price Odds to finish below 19.78
The tendency of Golden Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 19.78 or more in 90 days |
| 20.80 | 90 days | 19.78 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Golden Agri to drop to $ 19.78 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Golden Agri Resources probability density function shows the probability of Golden Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Golden Agri Resources price to stay between $ 19.78 and its current price of $20.8 at the end of the 90-day period is about 41.21 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Golden Agri Resources has a beta of -0.0441. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Golden Agri are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Golden Agri Resources is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Golden Agri Resources has an alpha of 0.0218, implying that it can generate a 0.0218 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Golden Agri Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Golden Agri
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Golden Agri Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Golden Agri Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Golden Agri is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Golden Agri's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Golden Agri Resources, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Golden Agri within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.43 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Golden Agri Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Golden Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Golden Agri's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Golden Agri's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12.7 B |
Golden Agri Technical Analysis
Golden Agri's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Golden Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Golden Agri Resources. In general, you should focus on analyzing Golden Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Golden Agri Predictive Forecast Models
Golden Agri's time-series forecasting models is one of many Golden Agri's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Golden Agri's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Golden Agri in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Golden Agri's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Golden Agri options trading.
Additional Tools for Golden Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Golden Agri's price analysis, check to measure Golden Agri's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Golden Agri is operating at the current time. Most of Golden Agri's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Golden Agri's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Golden Agri's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Golden Agri to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.