First Watch Restaurant Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 18.93
| FWRG Stock | USD 19.63 0.66 3.48% |
Closest to current price First long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
First |
First Watch Target Price Odds to finish below 18.93
The tendency of First Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 18.93 or more in 90 days |
| 19.63 | 90 days | 18.93 | about 85.24 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Watch to drop to $ 18.93 or more in 90 days from now is about 85.24 (This First Watch Restaurant probability density function shows the probability of First Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of First Watch Restaurant price to stay between $ 18.93 and its current price of $19.63 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.61 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.75 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, First Watch will likely underperform. Additionally First Watch Restaurant has an alpha of 0.1711, implying that it can generate a 0.17 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). First Watch Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for First Watch
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Watch Restaurant. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.First Watch Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Watch is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Watch's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Watch Restaurant, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Watch within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.75 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.00 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
First Watch Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First Watch for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First Watch Restaurant can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| First Watch had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| First Watch Restaurant currently holds 606.97 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.95, which is about average as compared to similar companies. First Watch Restaurant has a current ratio of 0.74, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about First Watch's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| First Watch has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 97.0% of First Watch shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Is It Too Late To Consider Buying First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. |
First Watch Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of First Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential First Watch's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Watch's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 61.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 49.6 M |
First Watch Technical Analysis
First Watch's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. First Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of First Watch Restaurant. In general, you should focus on analyzing First Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
First Watch Predictive Forecast Models
First Watch's time-series forecasting models is one of many First Watch's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary First Watch's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about First Watch Restaurant
Checking the ongoing alerts about First Watch for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for First Watch Restaurant help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| First Watch had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| First Watch Restaurant currently holds 606.97 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.95, which is about average as compared to similar companies. First Watch Restaurant has a current ratio of 0.74, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about First Watch's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| First Watch has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 97.0% of First Watch shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Is It Too Late To Consider Buying First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. |
Check out First Watch Backtesting, First Watch Valuation, First Watch Correlation, First Watch Hype Analysis, First Watch Volatility, First Watch History as well as First Watch Performance. You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Watch. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Watch listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.67) | Earnings Share 0.33 | Revenue Per Share 16.574 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.148 | Return On Assets 0.0212 |
The market value of First Watch Restaurant is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Watch's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Watch's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Watch's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Watch's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Watch's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Watch is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Watch's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.