First Trust Intermediate Fund Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Under 16.01

FPF Fund  USD 18.75  0.10  0.54%   
First Trust's future price is the expected price of First Trust instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of First Trust Intermediate performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out First Trust Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, First Trust Correlation, First Trust Hype Analysis, First Trust Volatility, First Trust History as well as First Trust Performance.
  
Please specify First Trust's target price for which you would like First Trust odds to be computed.

First Trust Target Price Odds to finish below 16.01

The tendency of First Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 16.01  or more in 90 days
 18.75 90 days 16.01 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Trust to drop to $ 16.01  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This First Trust Intermediate probability density function shows the probability of First Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of First Trust Intermediate price to stay between $ 16.01  and its current price of $18.75 at the end of the 90-day period is about 51.48 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon First Trust has a beta of 0.22. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, First Trust average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding First Trust Intermediate will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally First Trust Intermediate has an alpha of 0.0015, implying that it can generate a 0.001544 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   First Trust Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for First Trust

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Trust Intermediate. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
18.2618.7519.24
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
18.2718.7619.25
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
18.1118.5919.08
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
18.3818.6118.83
Details

First Trust Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Trust is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Trust's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Trust Intermediate, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Trust within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.22
σ
Overall volatility
0.26
Ir
Information ratio -0.18

First Trust Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First Trust for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First Trust Intermediate can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

First Trust Technical Analysis

First Trust's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. First Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of First Trust Intermediate. In general, you should focus on analyzing First Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

First Trust Predictive Forecast Models

First Trust's time-series forecasting models is one of many First Trust's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary First Trust's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about First Trust Intermediate

Checking the ongoing alerts about First Trust for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for First Trust Intermediate help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Other Information on Investing in First Fund

First Trust financial ratios help investors to determine whether First Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in First with respect to the benefits of owning First Trust security.
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