Federated Bond Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 8.47
| FDBCX Fund | USD 8.47 0.01 0.12% |
Federated |
Federated Bond Target Price Odds to finish below 8.47
The tendency of Federated Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 8.47 | 90 days | 8.47 | about 58.85 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Federated Bond to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 58.85 (This Federated Bond Fund probability density function shows the probability of Federated Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Federated Bond has a beta of 0.0069. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Federated Bond average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Federated Bond Fund will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Federated Bond Fund has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Federated Bond Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Federated Bond
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Federated Bond. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Federated Bond's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Federated Bond Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Federated Bond is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Federated Bond's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Federated Bond Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Federated Bond within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.08 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.47 |
Federated Bond Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Federated Bond for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Federated Bond can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Federated Bond generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -2.0% | |
| Federated Bond retains about 11.84% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities |
Federated Bond Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Federated Mutual Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Federated Bond's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Federated Bond's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Federated Bond Technical Analysis
Federated Bond's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Federated Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Federated Bond Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing Federated Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Federated Bond Predictive Forecast Models
Federated Bond's time-series forecasting models is one of many Federated Bond's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Federated Bond's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Federated Bond
Checking the ongoing alerts about Federated Bond for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Federated Bond help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Federated Bond generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -2.0% | |
| Federated Bond retains about 11.84% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities |
Other Information on Investing in Federated Mutual Fund
Federated Bond financial ratios help investors to determine whether Federated Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Federated with respect to the benefits of owning Federated Bond security.
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